Delhi exit polls later today: What the surveys predicted in 2015, 2020
As Delhi anticipates the release of exit polls later today for the 2025 Assembly elections, it's insightful to reflect on the predictions and outcomes of the 2015 and 2020 elections. Exit polls, conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots, aim to forecast election results. However, their accuracy has varied over the years.
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2015 Delhi Assembly Elections:
In the 2015 elections, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) achieved a historic landslide victory, securing 67 out of 70 seats. This overwhelming win was not fully anticipated by exit polls at the time.
India TV-C Voter Exit Poll: Predicted AAP would win between 35 to 43 seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expected to secure 25 to 33 seats.
India Today-Cicero Exit Poll: Estimated AAP's tally between 38 to 46 seats, leaving BJP with 19 to 27 seats.
ABP-Nielsen Exit Poll: Forecasted 43 seats for AAP and 26 for BJP.
While these polls indicated an AAP victory, none predicted the sheer magnitude of the party's win. The actual results saw AAP clinching 67 seats, leaving BJP with just 3 seats.
2020 Delhi Assembly Elections:
The 2020 elections saw exit polls providing more accurate predictions, though some still underestimated AAP's performance.
India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll: Projected AAP would win between 59 to 68 seats, with BJP securing 2 to 11 seats.
Times Now-IPSOS Exit Poll: Estimated 47 seats for AAP and 23 for BJP.
ABP News-CVoter Exit Poll: Predicted AAP's tally between 51 to 65 seats, leaving BJP with 3 to 17 seats.
The actual results had AAP winning 62 seats, while BJP secured 8 seats. These outcomes were more closely aligned with the exit poll predictions compared to 2015.
Conclusion:
Over the years, exit polls in Delhi have shown varying degrees of accuracy. While they offer a snapshot of voter sentiment, they are not always precise indicators of the final results. As we await the 2025 exit polls, it's essential to approach them with cautious optimism, recognizing their potential for both insight and error.
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